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Cake day: January 22nd, 2025

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  • I was thinking about this on the drive home and needed to log in to actually share this bit of craziness.

    One of the excuses that they’re using for bombing these school kids is to say that their intel on the area was about ten years out-of-date. Which is funny, because ten years ago was Trump’s first term, and a massive data breach happened around that time that cost U.S. intelligence agencies a huge number of agents.

    So, no matter how you slice it, this is on the Trump administration for messing up things he’s too stupid to understand. It takes time to build up assets who can provide information on any given area. It’s possible that there was a school there specifically because they knew the location was compromised.

    And even if you want to handwave that data breach as not Trump’s fault, (ignoring the fact that he starting this war). He cut more intelligence jobs when he got into office last year. Who knows what USAID was doing, Who knows what paper projects he cut that had aid in the area or fronts for CIA opperations. His military didn’t have current data on the region becuase everything he has done has fucked up opperations for his military.





  • Yeah, I don’t disagree. That’s what happened. They confused economic power with defense. Maybe if it wasn’t putin they were trying to stop it would have been better for them.

    They essentially traded a gun for a job and a restraining order. But also consider that the economic ties they gained by giving up their nukes. Bought them time and capital to build up their own military power enough to fight off Russia decades years later. They may not win this, but at the time the only thing they had were nukes.

    Ukraine made the choice to try to build itself up more. I don’t fault them for that. Geopolitics is a messy 4-D chess game.

    You just can’t really predict individual elements. When they declared independence putin was just a little shit stain and the billionaires in Russia were still fighting among each other to secure wealth and power.

    At the time, Ukraine giving up it’s nukes fast tracked it to the 1st world. Yeah, it sucks that it played out this way. But it wasn’t on its face a bad plan.

    If they had a 40 year old nuclear arsenal and matching tech they might not be at war right now, but they also probably wouldn’t be Ukraine either.