The two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran appeared at risk of unraveling less than a day after it was announced.

Three parts of Iran’s 10-point ceasefire proposal have been violated, Ghalibaf said. The violations are Israel’s continued attacks on Lebanon, the entry of a drone into Iranian airspace, and the denial of the Islamic Republic’s right to enrich uranium, he said.

  • DarkSpectrum@lemmy.worldEnglish
    51·
    3 days ago

    add on top of that:

    • time for Iran to administrate passage
    • time for each boat to enter/exit under security
    • reduced production rates due to full tanks or damaged infrastructure
    • time for countries to raise sovereign capital (selling bonds, gold and currency reserves) to meet price increases

    estimates are a reduction of 15-25% of global supply and 3-5 years to recover IF the straight is opened immediately and stays open. You can’t print oil ppl. The price per barrel will need to be high enough to squash 15-25% of global demand. We could see $300-350+ per barrel.