Three parts of Iran’s 10-point ceasefire proposal have been violated, Ghalibaf said. The violations are Israel’s continued attacks on Lebanon, the entry of a drone into Iranian airspace, and the denial of the Islamic Republic’s right to enrich uranium, he said.
Uh oh.
Also, I found some interesting trackers:
https://www.hormuztracker.com/
https://www.shiptraffic.net/2001/04/hormuz-strait-ship-traffic.html
No ships going through yet. And one had a very interesting nugget of info on insurance:
Insurance withdrawal makes transit commercially unviable independent of physical conditions. Even if the security situation improves tomorrow, insurers take weeks to reinstate coverage. Ships cannot sail without P&I cover — ports won’t accept them, banks won’t finance cargo, charterers won’t book them. Three weeks in, no insurer has shown willingness to reinstate. This is why the disruption will persist well beyond any resolution.
And didn’t Iran also mine the strait?
Apparently Iran has a map of safe routes that they give out to ships paying their transit fee.
add on top of that:
- time for Iran to administrate passage
- time for each boat to enter/exit under security
- reduced production rates due to full tanks or damaged infrastructure
- time for countries to raise sovereign capital (selling bonds, gold and currency reserves) to meet price increases
estimates are a reduction of 15-25% of global supply and 3-5 years to recover IF the straight is opened immediately and stays open. You can’t print oil ppl. The price per barrel will need to be high enough to squash 15-25% of global demand. We could see $300-350+ per barrel.
This is bullshit. There is a combination of excess and premium that any insurer would accept.
Or the USA could provide/pay the insurance. Trump wants the strait open, he can backstop the insurance.
How are you so stupid you end up coming out being the bad guy against IRAN 🤦🏻
The USA has always been THE bad guy, it just used to have better marketing and propaganda.
Three parts of Iran’s 10-point ceasefire proposal have been violated, Ghalibaf said. The violations are Israel’s continued attacks on Lebanon, the entry of a drone into Iranian airspace, and the denial of the Islamic Republic’s right to enrich uranium, he said.
As far as I’m aware, the ceasefire was to negotiate the terms to end the war, which was what the 10-point plan was a part of - nobody has agreed to anything yet beyond a cessation of hostilities pending the reopening of the straight. This is difficult to follow, because Iran’s own reporting has been incredibly inconsistent about the contents of that plan and what they are saying the ceasefire actually entails, and to complicate it further the US/Israel have said barely anything about the negotiations or terms of the ceasefire (including as far as I am aware listing any terms beyond “reopening of the straight”.)
I can’t find any reports of the US or Israel attacking Iran directly during this ceasefire, though - the only mention in the article of a direct slight against Iran is that a drone may have violated Iranian airspace - so… there’s that? It sounds like the US still hasn’t started blowing Iran up again, which is… god…
IDK. To my armchair-geopoliticing-ass, this feels like Iran attempting to force the idea that the US/Israel agreed to their 10-point plan as terms of the ceasefire - something which seems extremely unlikely given that the terms (depending on the source) include “allowing Iranian nuclear enrichment” which seems like something that would be negotiated at a much later part of the process. Which is weird because they already have the whole “Israel still blowing up lebanon” thing to justify this.
can’t find any reports of the US or Israel attacking Iran directly during this ceasefire,
I think it was Isreal stops attacking Lebanon
Yeah, sorry if that was unclear - I was just saying I don’t think they’ve attacked Iran directly during the ceasefire, Israel attacking lebanon is separate to that point.
edit: I have no idea why this is contentious?
Yeah, the reporting on all of this has been terrible. Iran released an inconsistent (different demands on the English terms) list of demands to end the war, but everyone is acting like the US accepted the list by agreeing to a temporary ceasefire.
I don’t think anybody is actually talking to anybody at this point. They’re playing telephone with the media.
Pretty much. It would be nice to know if negotiations had even begun before they fell apart, though I guess I don’t think it would particularly change anything.
More reporting on this. Whole article is short and worth a read, but:
https://www.axios.com/2026/04/08/lebanon-attacks-israel-iran-ceasfire
The U.S. official said the White House is not currently concerned that the situation in Lebanon would cause the ceasefire with Iran to collapse.
Hezbollah said it had a right to respond to Israeli’s attack.
At this point, I have to become an accelerationist. The only way MAGA Americans (about 25% of voters) will wake up is if they are negatively personally affected in serious ways, and the only way to do that is serious war issues.
The U.S. and Iran also appear at loggerheads over how traffic through the Strait of Hormuz should be managed.
Wow, CNBC, ya don’t say
