datendefekt

Russia doesn’t have the means for conventional war against NATO. If they did, the war in Ukraine would look much different. The current asymmetric attacks will increase, I am sure. But nothing to warrant Article 5. That would play into Putins hands and the Europeans know that.

Threat of war. OK, let’s think this through. The three threats I could think of are

• Russia intensifies its attacks. Threat of conventional war low, threat of attacks to critical infrastructure high. Effects would be localized and short-term. I rate this highest, because it’s currently underway.
• Donnie Darko presses the big red button. If this happens, all bets are off and who knows how long the go bag lasts. I rate this low.
• European civil unrest. Enabled by Russian shaping of public opinion, see first point. Possible, but I have faith in the resilience of a continent where most people don’t want yet another world war. Low Risk.

It’s always better to be safe than sorry, but I wouldn’t overstate the risk of all out war or unrest.

Just in time to compensate for Germany‘s closing of the Russian House and Consulate.

What an idiot. Europe has nothing to gain in this war. Many leaders have already said it’s not Europe’s war. They just need to sit this out and the balance of power will swing in their favor.